1) A Prophet like Moses
There were hardly any two prophets who were so much alike as Moses and Muhammad [pbuh]. Both were given a comprehensive law and code of life. Both encountered their enemies and were victorious in miraculous ways. Both were accepted as prophets and statesmen. Both migrated following conspiracies to assassinate them.
The analogies between Moses and Jesus overlook not only the above similarities but other crucial ones as well. These include the natural birth, the family life, and death of Moses and Muhammad [pbuh] but not of Jesus. Moreover Jesus was regarded by his followers as the son of god and not exclusively as a prophet of god, as Moses and Muhammad [pbuh] were and as Muslims believe Jesus was. So, this prophecy refers to the prophet Muhammad [pbuh] and not to Jesus, because Muhammad [pbuh] is more like Moses than Jesus.
Also, one notices from the gospel of john that the Jews were waiting for the fulfillment of three distinct prophecies. The first was the coming of Christ. The second was the coming of Elijah. The third was the coming of the prophet. This is obvious from the three questions that were posed to john the Baptist: “Now this was John’s testimony, when the Jews of Jerusalem sent priests and Levites to ask him who he was. He did not fail to confess, but confessed freely, “I am not the Christ.” They asked him, “then who are you? Are you Elijah?” He said, “I am not.” “Are you the prophet?” He answered, “No.” (John 1:19-21).
If we look in a bible with cross-references, we will find in the marginal notes where the words “the prophet” occur in John 1:21, that these words refer to the prophecy of Deuteronomy 18:15 and 18:18.(1) we conclude from this that Jesus Christ is not the prophet mentioned in Deuteronomy 18:18.
1- See the marginal notes in the niv study bible, New International Version on verse 1:21, page 1594.